Research

Publications

Draft versions of my publications (alas, only the Research & Politics article is open access) can be found on my ResearchGate profile.

Kayser, Mark A. and Arndt Leininger (2017) "A Länder-based Forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election", PS: Political Science and Politics, 50(3), pp. 689-692. (article)

Leininger, Arndt and Lea Heyne (2017) "How representative are referendums? Evidence from 20 years of Swiss referendums", Electoral Studies forthcoming (accepted manuscript)

Leininger, Arndt, Lukas Rudolph and Steffen Zittlau (2016) "How to increase turnout in low salience elections. Quasi-experimental evidence on the effect of simultaneous second-order elections on political participation", Political Science Research and Methods (article, replication/data, (early) draft)

Kayser, Mark A. and Arndt Leininger (2016) "A Predictive Test of Voters' Economic Benchmarking: The 2013 German Bundestag Election", German Politics, 25(1), pp. 106-130 (article)

Leininger, Arndt (2015) "Wissenschaftliche Wahlprognosen - Alternative oder Ergänzung zu Umfragen?" in: Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen, 46(4), pp. 675-691 (article)

Kayser, Mark A. and Arndt Leininger (2015) "Vintage Errors: Do Real-Time Economic Data Improve Election Forecasts?", Research and Politics, 2(3) (article, replication/data)

Leininger, Arndt (2015) "Direct Democracy in Europe: Potentials and Pitfalls", Global Policy, 6(S1), pp. 17-27 (article)

Work in Progress

"Coalition Building and Social Identity" (with Denise Laroze and David Hugh-Jones) (slides, under review)

"Popular Support for Direct Democracy in Europe: Critical but not Compensatory"

"The Elusive Effect of Referendums on Democratic Satisfaction"

"Who votes against the government? Voting Behavior in National Referendums in Switzerland" (paper, replication/data)

"Die Erfolge der AfD und die Wahlbeteiligung: Gibt es einen Zusammenhang?" (with Stefan Haußner, University Duisburg-Essen)

"The Consequences of Increasing Turnout in Low-Salience Elections: Evidence from Concurrent Elections in Germany” (with Lukas Rudolph, LMU Munich)

"Is there an economic vote in referendums? The case of the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum"

Blog

I also occasionally blog about my research and data analyses I do in my 'free time.' See below for a selection of posts.